Tag Archives: Senate race

Ted Cruz May be in Trouble

We’ve been hearing about the coming Blue Wave. Democrats are still angry after Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss and they’re trying to flip as many seats as they can in the midterm elections.

It looks like in Texas, Ted Cruz may be in for some trouble. Earlier this year, Gallup listed traditionally red Texas as competitive. Then, his Democrat challenger Beto O’Rourke brought in more than 6 millions dollars in the first quarter of 2018 – a record setting figure. According to The Hill, O’Rourke has steadily been out raising Cruz for the past few quarters.

Cruz formally kicked off his re-election bid yesterday, debuting the slogan “Tough as Texas.”

From the Texas Tribune:

When Cruz took the stage, he spent a good chunk of his remarks recognizing a few heroic figures in attendances — people like Stephen Willeford, who sprang into action amid the church massacre last year in Sutherland Springs and helped take down the gunman by opening fire on him with his own gun.

“That’s Texas,” Cruz said after ticking through their acts of bravery. “Texas is strong, Texas is independent, Texas is fearless, Texas is free, Texas loves freedom and Texas is tough.”

“We don’t sit around waiting for some other guy to fix the problem,” Cruz added. “Texans step in and git ‘er done.”

O’Rourke seems pretty confident he can beat Cruz, and is holding numerous town halls across the Lone Star State in the coming weeks.

It’s pretty wild that we’re even considering a Republican might not win Texas but the GOP is in a pretty vulnerable stage – the younger generation is increasingly liberal and as people move out of California and in to more affordable states like Texas, we’re going to see a switch in voting patterns.

This is definitely one race to watch.
-K

 

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New Politico Poll Shows the Top 10 Senate Races for 2018

It’s a mid-term election year and several Senate seats are up for grabs. Politico released their latest Senate race rankings in order from most to least likely to flip in the November election.

The rankings:

1. Nevada
GOP Senator Dean Heller is running for reelection but so far his Democratic opponent has raised more money.

2. Indiana
Senator Joe Donnelly will likely lose his seat. Probably the ONLY reason he won last time is that he’s a fairly conservative Democrat and the Republican opponent in 2012 was a far right leaning Republican who didn’t appeal to moderates or independents. He also shot himself in the foot with his rape comments right before election day. Right now there are three Republicans running in the primary and Indiana GOP voters would be wise to pick a more moderate candidate that will fare well against Donnelly in the fall.

3. Missouri 
According to Politico, Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill has “nearly eight times as much cash on hand as her likely opponent, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, the GOP’s top Senate recruit this cycle.” Hawley is doing very well and (sadly) beating former Libertarian candidate Austin Petersen in the GOP primary polls.

4. Arizona
Senator Jeff Flake is retiring and pondering a Presidential bid in 2020. Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema might win among voters but could be a toss up if she faces GOP Rep. Martha McSally. Also running in the GOP primary,  Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who brings with him lots of controversy.

5. North Dakota
Senator Heitkamp is running for reelection but this one might be easy to flip. The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll earlier this month showing him with a small lead over the incumbent Democrat.

6. West Virgina
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is running for reelection. From Politico: “While the ranking is the same, Manchin appears a bit safer than he was at the start of the year. Why? The emergence of Don Blankenship, the ex-con coal baron infamous for his role in the deaths of 29 miners at the Upper Big Branch Mine, as a force in the GOP primary.”

7. Florida
Never rule out anything when it comes to ultimate swing state Florida. Senator Bill Nelson is running for reelection but Gov. Rick Scott is expected to jump in the race and is very popular with the public at the moment. Anything could happen here.

8. Wisconsin
Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin running for reelection and seems to have the most cash. But Trump won here in 2016, so it will be interesting to see if those blue collar, Reagan Democrats flip again and vote against their own party.

9. Montana
Democratic Senator Jon Tester is running for reelection in a state that overwhelmingly voted for Trump. From Politico, “Tester is far from safe — he’s ultimately running for reelection in a state Trump won by 21 percentage points. But Democrats feel better about him than some of their other incumbents: He’s had more than a dozen pieces of legislation signed into law by the president, and Montanans have a strong and recent history of ticket-splitting.”

10. Ohio
Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running for reelection and has nearly 10 million in the bank. Politico doesn’t consider him safe and says it comes down to who fund-raises better on the GOP side and goes on to challenge him in the November election.

Rokita to skip televised Republican primary debate due to ‘leftist propaganda’

“Then I’m just gonna take my ball and go home!”  That’s basically the attitude of the Rokita campaign.

In the political world, name recognition and ID are invaluable to candidates running for office. Before someone officially announces a run for office, especially a statewide office, that’s usually one of the first things discussed by a potential candidate and/or campaign. Because if people don’t know who you are, they aren’t likely to vote for you come Election Day.

Raising a candidate’s name ID is the main reason why campaigns spend so much money on television/radio ads. Well, that and attempting to differentiate yourself from your opponents.

Debates among the candidates is an excellent and free opportunity to achieve both of those goals simultaneously, especially when that debate is going to be televised across the state.  That’s why a recently announced decision from the Todd Rokita campaign is so utterly mystifying.

The campaign announced Friday that they will not participate in a statewide televised debate on April 30. And what rationale did the campaign give for their decision to skip the debate?

Well, apparently they have other things planned that day, citing scheduling conflicts. Oh, and they also don’t want to deal with “leftist propaganda” and “gotcha questions from liberal media figures, liberal college professors, or other parties interested in attacking Republicans and re-electing Joe Donnelly.”  

Um…ok? Except for the fact that the debate is being organized by the nonpartisan Indiana Debate Commission and it’s being moderate dby Indy Politics reporter and WIBC radio host Abdul-Hakim Shabazz. Sure, he may not be as conservative as Tony Katz ( the moderator of the first Republican Senate debate in January) but Abdul is anything but a liberal. I mean, the conservative WIBC doesn’t usually give shows to liberals.

Anyway, the Rokita campaign says “He (Rokita)  looks forward to sharing his message with as many Hoosier conservatives as possible between now and election day.”

That statement kind of rings hollow given Friday’s mystifyingly dumb decision to skip an April 30 debate, especially considering Election Day is May 8.

Oh well, more time for Messer and Braun to shine.

-BZ

Braun campaign takes down questionable immigration ad

After feeling the heat for using the death and pictures of a Colts player and an Uber driver at the hands of an illegal immigrant in an ad, the Braun campaign has reversed course and is removing the ad from television.

In the race where all three Republican candidates are trying to cozy up to Trump as much as possible, immigration was inevitably going to come up at some point. It’s likely to make several more appearances before the May primary, in some form or fashion.

The ad, which is still up on on the Braun campaign’s Youtube page, exploits a tragic situation for political gain. No matter what side of the political spectrum you happen to fall, no matter what issue – whether it be gun control or immigration – using a tragedy to push an agenda is pretty cold and callous.

What in the world could the campaign have been thinking to run such an ad mere weeks after the deadly incident?

However, the Braun campaign does deserve some credit for recognizing their mistake and reversing course.

There are plenty of other ways to make a point such as this, there was simply no need to make such an ad. Hopefully, in the future, the campaign decides to utilize other methods, facts and figures to make their position known to the voting public.

I understand all politics is essentially local and personal, but that ad was too personal, especially for the widow of the killed Uber driver.

– BZ