It’s a mid-term election year and several Senate seats are up for grabs. Politico released their latest Senate race rankings in order from most to least likely to flip in the November election.
GOP Senator Dean Heller is running for reelection but so far his Democratic opponent has raised more money.
Senator Joe Donnelly will likely lose his seat. Probably the ONLY reason he won last time is that he’s a fairly conservative Democrat and the Republican opponent in 2012 was a far right leaning Republican who didn’t appeal to moderates or independents. He also shot himself in the foot with his rape comments right before election day. Right now there are three Republicans running in the primary and Indiana GOP voters would be wise to pick a more moderate candidate that will fare well against Donnelly in the fall.
According to Politico, Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill has “nearly eight times as much cash on hand as her likely opponent, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, the GOP’s top Senate recruit this cycle.” Hawley is doing very well and (sadly) beating former Libertarian candidate Austin Petersen in the GOP primary polls.
Senator Jeff Flake is retiring and pondering a Presidential bid in 2020. Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema might win among voters but could be a toss up if she faces GOP Rep. Martha McSally. Also running in the GOP primary, Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who brings with him lots of controversy.
5. North Dakota
Senator Heitkamp is running for reelection but this one might be easy to flip. The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll earlier this month showing him with a small lead over the incumbent Democrat.
6. West Virgina
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is running for reelection. From Politico: “While the ranking is the same, Manchin appears a bit safer than he was at the start of the year. Why? The emergence of Don Blankenship, the ex-con coal baron infamous for his role in the deaths of 29 miners at the Upper Big Branch Mine, as a force in the GOP primary.”
Never rule out anything when it comes to ultimate swing state Florida. Senator Bill Nelson is running for reelection but Gov. Rick Scott is expected to jump in the race and is very popular with the public at the moment. Anything could happen here.
Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin running for reelection and seems to have the most cash. But Trump won here in 2016, so it will be interesting to see if those blue collar, Reagan Democrats flip again and vote against their own party.
Democratic Senator Jon Tester is running for reelection in a state that overwhelmingly voted for Trump. From Politico, “Tester is far from safe — he’s ultimately running for reelection in a state Trump won by 21 percentage points. But Democrats feel better about him than some of their other incumbents: He’s had more than a dozen pieces of legislation signed into law by the president, and Montanans have a strong and recent history of ticket-splitting.”
Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running for reelection and has nearly 10 million in the bank. Politico doesn’t consider him safe and says it comes down to who fund-raises better on the GOP side and goes on to challenge him in the November election.