In a 2017 U.S. Party Affiliation by State poll, Gallup is showing some really surprising results.
States that have always traditionally been red states, like Texas, Indiana and Kentucky are now categorized as “Competitive.”
Other traditionally conservative states like Missouri, Mississippi and Arkansas now just “lean Republican.”
Also surprising, as of a Jan. 2018 survey, more people consider themselves to be Independent. Twenty-two percent of voters identified as Republican and thirty-two percent as Democrat. Looking at that data, it would appear that over the past few years, this has been the trend.
If you look at the 2016 voting breakdown for Texas, the more liberal voting areas are the major cities like Dallas, Austin and Houston but the majority of the rural areas are still voting overwhelmingly conservative. There’s also a large blue block down by the Mexico border, which is no shock there as many of those residents are probably immigrants who overwhelmingly voted for Clinton.
And in Indiana, about the only blue spots in the state are Marion County (Indianapolis), Bloomington (home to IU) and a few counties up by Chicago.
Of course, as we all know, polling data can and is sometimes wrong. Just take a look at the 2016 election – nearly every major poll got the Presidential election wrong. But it’s still interesting to look at for the long term perspective on how things in our country might start to change with the millennial voters.